The reopening of Venezuelan oil trade under conditional US authorisations has shifted the focus of sanctions checks towards individual vessels, cargo histories and trading networks, according to a Kpler analysis published by Hellenic Shipping News. The report argues that permission to trade does not eliminate exposure: a tanker’s absence from sanctions lists is only the starting point for assessing a shipment.
Kpler’s figures put Venezuelan crude exports at roughly 870,000 barrels a day in 2025, despite tighter policy. Shipments dropped to about 667,000 barrels a day in January 2026 before recovering to an average of approximately 1.14 million barrels a day between April and September. The analysis cautions against assigning the January decline to one cause, arguing that sanctions reshape access to production and transport rather than immediately stopping physical output.
The report describes a licensing regime that moved from a wind-down of energy authorisations in early 2025 to restricted permissions that July, followed by a controlled reopening in 2026. It says subsequent US licences expanded permitted activities, including oilfield goods and services, certain investment negotiations and transactions involving sanctioned Venezuelan entities. For cargo screening, the relevant authorisation, its dates and its conditions must therefore be checked alongside the counterparties and destination.
Trade routes have also changed. China and unidentified destinations dominated the destination mix in 2022, whereas the US was the largest identified market in 2026, ahead of India and Spain, according to the analysis. Kpler recorded more than 560 Venezuelan crude trades involving 189 vessels in 2026. Unidentified destinations, movements through the Bahamas and Curaçao, and ship-to-ship transfers remain areas requiring closer cargo-level review.
The analysis stresses that gaps in Automatic Identification System transmissions, false positioning signals and transfers between tankers are warning indicators, not proof of wrongdoing. Reception problems or technical faults can interrupt tracking, while ship-to-ship operations are routine in many trades. It also notes that some vessels in the Strait of Hormuz switch off AIS for protection against attacks. Assessments should combine movement records with satellite imagery, ownership, management, flag and previous cargoes. Tankers can migrate between Venezuelan, Iranian and other high-risk trades, making scrutiny of the wider fleet network more informative than examining a single voyage alone.