Possible US sanctions relief for tankers could draw vessels away from Russian oil trades and into Middle Eastern services, increasing freight costs for Russian exports while easing shortages around Hormuz. Hellenic Shipping News, carrying a Platts report, said Energy Secretary Chris Wright had indicated that legitimate businesses would be permitted to buy sanctioned vessels for unrestricted trades. Washington has not yet published a detailed proposal.
The scope for adding capacity may be limited. BRS Shipbrokers counted 148 deepsea tankers sanctioned only by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control as of 19 October, representing 2.5% of the global fleet by vessel count. Location data suggested just 14 had been inactive for more than three months. Most potential candidates for mainstream employment were already working in likely sanctioned trades, principally transporting Russian refined products. BRS therefore expected redistribution rather than a substantial release of unused tonnage.
Higher earnings elsewhere could encourage that shift. Platts assessments put average medium-range tanker time-charter-equivalent earnings on the Baltic–East Coast South America route $15,518.14 a day below its Global Clean Tanker Medium Range Index during 1–16 October. Gibson Shipbrokers said Russian export freight rates could rise if vessels moved into Middle Eastern business, although a short waiver might discourage charterers from committing to longer voyages.
Gibson estimated that 84% of OFAC-only tankers were in the Middle East, Indian Ocean or East Asia, positioning them for possible Hormuz shuttle work. Both Gibson and BRS identified these services as a likely outlet amid attack-related supply constraints. Platts assessed freight for a 265,000-tonne crude cargo from the Persian Gulf to India’s west coast at $95.83 per tonne on 19 October, against $19.15 on 27 February, before the conflict.
Legal relief would not resolve every obstacle. UK and EU restrictions could remain, while vessel age, condition, insurance, classification and charterer compliance requirements would limit acceptance. Gibson said 70% of OFAC-listed tankers were at least 20 years old. S&P Global Energy Horizons analyst Fotios Katsoulas expected the realistically employable pool to be substantially smaller than the sanctioned fleet. INTERTANKO urged scrutiny of maintenance, insurance and ownership, while the International Chamber of Shipping said assessing the proposal depended partly on clarity over its interaction with UK and EU sanctions.