Severe low water on the Rhine is disrupting inland fuel oil logistics and contributing to a build-up of products at coastal ports, according to Alkagesta Market Insights. In its October market outlook, the company describes a sharp divide between rising Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) inventories and shortages in inland European consumer markets as the fourth-quarter heating season approaches.
Alkagesta reports that the water-level reading at Kaub, a critical point for Rhine navigation, fell to -5 cm on 1 October and stood at 0 cm on 2 October. It characterises the readings as record lows and says drought conditions have paralysed Upper Rhine barge navigation. The disruption described in the report centres on river transport and the movement of refined products between coastal and inland locations.
The company identifies Shell Rheinland and MiRO Karlsruhe as major refining complexes affected by the constraints, listing their capacities at 190,000 and 316,000 barrels a day respectively. According to its assessment, the conditions have forced reductions in barge loadings of up to a third. That figure concerns loadings rather than a stated reduction in refinery processing rates; the report does not quantify any change in refinery output.
Alkagesta puts ARA fuel oil inventories at 961,000 tonnes and reports an 18.5% week-on-week increase. It also cites 842,000 tonnes from its 8 September outlook as an earlier comparison. The company attributes the coastal accumulation of heavy refined products to the river disruption, while describing severe physical supply deficits inland. It presents this imbalance as a continuation of the Rhine-ARA disconnection flagged in its earlier analysis.
The findings are Alkagesta’s market assessment, based on internal analysis and publicly available external information. The publication says some numerical material draws on S&P Global Platts information, without identifying which individual figures. It also cautions that its information carries no guarantee of accuracy or completeness and that projected developments may not materialise.