US shippers renewing truckload contracts are paying about 13% more than under their previous agreements, according to FreightWaves, as carriers continue to secure double-digit increases. SONAR’s Contract Rate Change Direction index reached 13.11% on 22 October, compared with 3.53% a year earlier. The outlet said invoice data also indicated that the latest increases were being sustained.
The index tracks the average percentage change between replacement and previous base rates in existing shipper-carrier relationships. To qualify, the earlier rate must have remained unchanged for more than 90 days, helping distinguish contract repricing from short-term fluctuations. Calculated as a seven-day rolling average and refreshed daily, the measure excludes temporary pricing effects associated with route guide waterfalling and contract-plus arrangements.
Its coverage nevertheless has limits. Only contracts undergoing a rate change enter the calculation, so it does not represent a volume-weighted measure of the whole market, and observations can become sparse when fewer agreements are being reset. It also does not capture changes in a carrier’s position within a shipper’s routing guide. FreightWaves noted that resets were running at roughly 3-4% from late 2024, while the separate average contract rate index showed invoiced rates flat to slightly lower through most of 2025.
The latest increases follow a prolonged period of elevated tender rejections. FreightWaves said contract repricing typically trails rejection rates, with the current reading coming nearly a year after rejections exceeded 9%. Rejections have averaged close to 13% over recent months, while contract increases have remained above 10%. The repricing index is not annualised: it records changes only once they take effect and does not by itself establish whether higher rates will hold.
FreightWaves expects average increases to ease as carriers shift towards financially healthier contracts. However, it said FMCSA and tender data suggested capacity had not expanded meaningfully over the preceding 12 months despite elevated rates. That lack of growth could delay a levelling-off in contract rate increases.